WORKING PAPERS
Criminogenic Effects of Mass Forced Displacement
This study seeks to identify the causal effect of Syrian refugee influx on crime in Turkey for the 2009-2016 period. Using provincial data on new criminal cases handled by the chief prosecutor’s office and new criminal charges in assize courts and the penal court of first instance, an instrumental variables Poisson regression is employed to take the endogenous nature and the intensity of refugee settlement and the count nature of crime into account. Results indicate that the expected number of new criminal cases handled by the chief prosecutor’s office increases by 31 to 58 percent as a consequence of mass displacement. However, several falsification exercises assert that our confidence in these causal effects is severely undermined, suggesting that the true effect is null. Consistently, Syrian refugee influx has no effect on new criminal charges in assize courts and evidence is very brittle for those in penal courts. The study also highlights the drawback of relying on incorrect standard errors in the light of recent advances
on valid inference for IV and shows that some prior evidence is weakened or washed away.
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JEL Classification: F22, J68, K42, C23, C26
Keywords: instrumental variables Poisson, crime, refugees, Syrians, Turkey
Causal Identification in Crime Research: Lessons from Structural Causal Models
This paper addresses identification challenges in social science research using observational data, through illustrative and tailored examples from the economics of crime. The paper highlights how structural causal models and directed acyclic graphs help clarify the causal structure underlying empirical questions to avoid pitfalls such as collider bias and the use of inadmissible instruments or covariate sets. By distinguishing identification from estimation, the paper emphasizes the importance of specifying the full causal model to draw correct inferences. The case studies demonstrate how structural causal models can sharpen identification strategies and improve the credibility of causal claims in applied research.
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JEL Classification: A12; C18; C51; K14
Keywords: structural causal model, causal graphs, crime research, sentencing, Pearl's causal framework
Effects of Family Involvement on Deceased Donor Organ Recovery
This paper elucidates the causal effect of family refusal on deceased organ recovery in Turkey. Using provincial and district-level panel data that span the period of 2012-2019 and employing structural causal models followed by an instrumental variables Poisson that leverages educational attainment and potential supply of donors as a source of exogenous variation in family refusal, results show that a 1 percentage-point increase in family refusal rate reduces the expected number of deceased organ donations by about 5 percent. A battery of sensitivity analyses and falsification tests corroborate our findings and strengthen the credibility of the estimated causal effect. Family involvement is a major obstacle to low deceased donation in Turkey. The reluctance to declare brain death, coupled with overreliance on living donation, infrastructural shortcomings and organizational bottlenecks are likely the primary contributors to the country's persistently low rates of deceased organ donation.​
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Keywords: Instrumental variables Poisson, brain death, family consent, deceased organ donation, Turkey